More information has come to light concerning the study we reported on here.
An anonymous source said they have contact with someone participating in the study, called the Thomas Project, out of Wheaton College, and the study consists of questions asked once a year by phone. This participant also noted that the questions were oversimplified, requiring basic responses where they felt detailed explanations were needed. We have good reason to trust this contact, though we will respect their request for anonymity.
There are unconfirmed reports that the study has a sample of as few as 100 to 150 participants. While we don’t know what work was done during selection or preparation, we now know that the data was collected via annual phone calls. A picture is forming of some weak methodology, but presumably more accurate assessments can be made if and/or when others in the scientific community are allowed to review the method of selection of study subjects, the content and method of questions, and the presence or lack of nonverbal measurements and control data.
We suspect Exodus’ Regional Freedom Conference (September 13-15) will be the most likely setting for the formal announcement of the results of the Thomas Project. We also suspect the results will claim rates of over 30% experiencing “change”, but this can’t be verified at this time. If so, it seems interesting that Exodus president Alan Chambers knew this before the study was barely a year out:
By Chambers’ estimate, only 30 percent of those who seek to switch orientations succeed. Fifty percent abandon the program. The other 20 percent, he says, go back and forth. “I would say it’s like [Alcoholics Anonymous],” Chambers says. “It’s in the 30-percent range [that] find a great degree of healing and move into heterosexuality, single or married.”
(Orlando Weekly interview with Alan Chambers, published 24 July 2003)
We will release more details as they become available.
Update: Peterson Toscano below relates a conversation with Chambers from 2005 which tends to confirm the lower sample figure of 100 participants.
Urgh, if accurate I think that just about answers my list of questions….
Someone just spent 5 years collating a list of exgay testimonies???
Useless.
Correction: useless as far as being an outcome study. Not useless for Exodus/NARTH marketing purposes…
I think it’s important to add the disclaimer to any such statements (though Exodus, of course, is known for its policy of gross dishonesty in this arena) that the study of sexuality “change” has demonstrated that it rarely refers to “true” or “complete” change of orientation, but is often more a change in label and habit made to bring about greater alignment with one’s values and spiritual faith. This is quite radically different from the claims typically made.
Whatever the ultimate result and methodology, I grantdale already hit the nail on the head…. it’s likely to be another collection of superficial questions that don’t elucidate the issue.
I first heard of a five year study from Alan Chambers when we sat for a taping of the Faith Under Fire TV program back in February 2005. (The show aired in April of that year. Read transcript here. See video here.)
In March of 2006 some of us were discussing the fuzzy math of how many ex-gays there were in the world. Thousands? Tens of thousands? More?
On my blog I shared an exchange that took place on Faith Under Fire that never got to air.
Perhaps the Thomas Project will have more than just 100 subjects and perhaps most of them won’t be people who work for ex-gay programs.
Becasue Exodus seems so happy to tout the results, I think we can assume the results will “show” the 30% stat or maybe even more. I will definately be interested in the methodology.
I agree, and we have heard figures of 30% to 50% ourselves but decided to leave it at “over 30%” to be conservative. The figure is really less important than the methodology and the definition of “change” used.
I hope the distinction between “single” and “married” will be made. Being single and “healed” does not often imply that one’s attractions have changed (despite whether or not one uses the term “heterosexual” as a label). Neither does being married, for that matter, but at least that’s a safer bet.
What I would like to see would be honest analysis of where the attractions of those who have gone through ex-gay therapy lie. Not how “healed” they feel or what they call themselves, but how much (or how little) they are attracted to the same sex vs. the opposite sex.
Unfortunately, I doubt we’ll get such openness, which makes me disappointed. If you believe in God and are devoted to Him, it shouldn’t matter who you are attracted to. But I’ve always had a feeling that some of the guys at Exodus seem to hold heterosexuality in greater esteem than Christ.
I wonder if the use of the name “Thomas” has anything to do with doubting Thomas and his demand to see before he would believe.
Jay said:
Sad, but true Jay. With the expanded level of lobbying vs ministry at Exodus, I don’t see that changing for the better anytime soon. They have a deep capacity for rationalization concerning the direction they are taking.
My dad and I correspond quite a bit regarding gay issues. As a conservative, evangelical, well-respected pastor I’m pretty much assured to get a pretty good feel as to what that side of the aisle thinks (He doesn’t particularly sugar coat things). In a recent e-mail to me, he said something really interesting regarding Exodus:
One has to wonder how many other pastors, counselors, etc. within Christianity feel this way because I rather feel that my dad is generally more the rule than the exception to the rule. Chambers, et al, may be excited to wave this number around, although for the life of me, i can’t see why.
j.
Jonathan,
You misunderstand Chambers’ audience. It is not pastors – it is politicians.
A pastor is inclined to look at such a study and say, “what then do we do with those who don’t change their orientation?”. A politician looks at this study as cover and justification for anti-gay political activities. Different audience – different goals.
The problem Chambers runs into is that his definition of change (a religious identity) is structured in the language of the Church, while “change” as defined secularly (a change in attractions) simply isn’t what we see being reported.
So Chambers has to decide whether to have a study that reports to politicians in their language, a study that reports to preachers in their language, or a deliberate deception that reports to politicians in the language of preachers and distorts the truth.
Sadly, I fear the later.
Incidentally, if you have any questions as to whether Exodus has any final pretense as to reaching out to same-sex attracted persons being their goal – as opposed to anti-gay activism, see who they are meeting up with next month.
Chambers, et al, may be excited to wave this number around, although for the life of me, i can’t see why.
My guesses:
1. Because 30% is a heck of a lot better than
oops -sorry – my reply got somehow cut off:
1. Because 30 is a heck of a lot better than less than 1%.
2. Exodus’ primary constituency is not gays & lesbians, but rather their loved ones who are desparate to believe that change is possible.
Jay wrote:
I think you’re absolutely right, Jay. Perhaps you could sum it up as: “Faith, hope and heterosexuality – and the greatest of these is heterosexuality.”
Even if Exodus Inter. was able to boast about a 30% success rate, that means there is still a 70% FAILURE RATE. As a teacher, if I had only 30% of my students pass the state required test, I would be considered an unqualified teacher. If I worked as a salesperson, an only 30% of my customers were satisfied with the way I treated them, I would be fired.
I really feel sorry for these ex-gay people because they want so hard to please their god and their god is not a god that is easily pleased. He’ll only love them if they are having sex with a woman in a shame marriage or if they abstain from sex and any kind of true relationship all together. But I know the Exodus ex-gay people will rejoice upon hearing 30% or whateve percent the number it may be. For them, they see that small fraction as the “truely saved,” the ones who are going to heaven.
I sure do hope they make it to heaven, and those in the 70% group as well, because they are sure going through hell now.
You, oh God, love all things that are and hate none of the things which you have made, because you did not appoint or make anything hating it. How would anything have endured if you had not willed it? How would anything have been preserved had it not been called forth by you? You spare all things because they are yours, O Lord, who loves souls.
(Wisdom 11:25-27)
What I would like to understand is WHY Chambers has purposefully driven Exodus to embrace a more political stance. What role did Dobson play in bringing to the forefront a man with limited (if any) experience in running a ministry? It would seem to me that someone knowingly placed Chambers in this position with the understanding that he would be a mouth piece only in an effort to fight a war against gay people. Chambers is getting his orders from somewhere…certainly not from God.
j.
Basically, the gist of what we have read here on XGW is:
0.00% success rate. Not that unmentionable number.** Not even 1%. The challenge for NARTH/Exodus or anyone is to provide us with anyone who we can prove scientifically they have been once homo and now are hetero.
I would bet my ranch on 0.00%.
But then, (sigh) I hear of some of these same people who think the earth is only 6007 years old. They’re not going to believe anything scientifically proven or otherwise.
**I’m heeding the advice that any mention of any number could be construed as fact.
Guys, I applaud the detective work that’s gone into uncovering this secret study. I went out on a limb today and e-mailed Stanton Jones (who is presently the Provost at Wheaton in addition to being professor of pyschology) and inquired about the study.
He replied and said that he is not presently answering questions about the study, but told me to feel free to contact him after September 8. Perhaps that is the date they will announce the results?
With the ultimate goal furthering whatever Exodus ideal of a heterosexual life is advancing EVERYTHING, I don’t think anything they come up with can be considered valid.
The other portion of the equation isn’t being studied or allowed full inclusion in their personal and moral destiny. They definitively keep their distance from gay people who are secure in their sexuality, even with all the criteria that runs counter to what Exodus insists causes homosexuality AND what they require to have a person abandon being gay. It’s as if they are still working with the theoretical, while disallowing the emprical as part of the process of gathering truth.
Invoking the political institution, ensures that empirical participation won’t happen.
They decidedly DON’T want any more social experimenting like what’s been accomplished with marriage equality in MA.
Or the testimonies of gay three and four star generals in the military.
Or the successes noted by researchers of the effects of gay parents on their children.
Or we saw how Dobson not only distorted the findings of researchers in his article in TIME. He dissed the researchers who wanted him to desist his activity!
This all goes to show that they are afraid. They have NO faith in what they are doing and are in dire straits to even be able to prove their own theories.
As a heterosexual woman, I know that the affect they are going for, is the superficial part of what heterosexuality is.
But the substance, is nothing we have control over.
And so many issues before us, have to do with gender conformity or non conformity.
The ‘battle of the sexes’, carries a lot of real weight in the world.
So heterosexuality unto itself, is a superficial and frankly shallow enterprise to pursue for Exodus’s purposes. And if that’s not what you are, it’s REALLY not a big deal to people with more important matters on their minds.
The things that make a person more important, special and secure….have little to do with their gender or sexual orientation.
But their hearts and achievements as caring human beings.
Doesn’t Wheaton College have better things to do with their funding and energies?
Regan, I so agree with what you say, “The things that make a person more important, special and secure….have little to do with their gender or sexual orientation.
But their hearts and achievements as caring human beings.” But Bible worshippers will never see it that way.
As I have stated in my blog about Exodus International, they are at war with homosexuality and they want to take the Christianity with them. And we in the GLBT community are the enemy. So of course they are not going to acknowledge anything that would even hint that a gay person can live a healthy, productive life with a stable partnership, and be able to achieve heights in the military and other fields. Everytime I read any of Exodus Int.’s statements it always seems they are 2 seconds away from calling themselves “Abel” and calling us “Cain.”
But as damaging they are to not only the gay community and to the Christian community, they ultimately are damning themselves, because they refuse to worship the God OF the Bible but rather settle for the Bible as their God. Just recently, a friend of mine who, though we had been friends for over 5 years and he knew I was an Orthodox Catholic and Gay, decided to attack both my beliefs and my sexual orientation. At the last conversation we had he told me that if he had a choice between a friendship or the Bible, he would choose the Bible. And last report I heard he and his Bible are doing fine. Instead of doing WHAT the Bible says, these Bible worshippers just want to HEAR the blood, guts, and hate of the Bible without ever figuring out its true message.
By the way, I highly recomend a book by Rev. Gayy Commins…Becoming Bridges. It is written by the Priest at the Episcopal parish I attend. It is available at amazon.com . I recomend it not because he is the priest at the church I attend, but because I think all Christians would benefit from it, gay, straight, latino, white, african-american, etc. It is about allowing all to come to the altar. It is about unity and coming together.
Alan who posted above, you get a special hat tip from me for quoting from the Jewish apocrypha (which I believe is part of the Catholic Bible). It’s a wonderful verse.
Let’s put this into perspective:
“You can buy this car for $20,000 and drive it for 5 years but there will be a 70% chance that this car will fail every time you drive it.”
“You can spend $15,000 on this rare breed of hunting dog and it will live with you faithfully for 2 years, but there will be a 70% chance that it will go crazy and maul you when you are in the same room.”
“You can spend $25,000 participating in reparative therapy and live-in programs for 4 years but there’s a 70% chance you will come out of it unchanged, and have to face whatever consequences await you as a result (loss of self respect, hopelessness, substance abuse, debt, suicide, loss of friends, rejection by family and church, etc…)”
I REALLY don’t like those odds.
Emily, thanks for the hat tip. That passage of Scripture is what opened my eyes to the fact that God actually loves me just because I exist and that God’s love is unconditional. I think all of us in the GLBT community have a hard time believing that because those who are suppose to represent Christ end up many times representing his nemesis when dealing with the GLBT community.
I like your analogies. It’s sad to think that in order to become a member of something like Exodus International you pretty much have to check your common sense at the door.
This is all the more reason for the public to ratchet up pressure on the American Psychological Association. It has been reported that they have plans to issue new guidelines regarding reparative and ex-gay therapies. It’s time that the APA nips this in the bud once and for all — and that Congress adopts legislation banning parents from forcing their underage children to undergo reparative or ex-gay therapy. This must be our new family value.
I’m surprised nobody seems to have mentioned this, but that Chambers quote doesn’t seem to be acknowledging a 70% failure rate. Note that he didn’t say that 50% failed to change their orientation, or that the therapy didn’t work for 50% of them. Instead, it’s “Fifty percent abandon the program.” So we’ve got 30% perfect success, 20% medium success, and the other 50% just didn’t stick with it long enough. They gave up too soon, it’s their fault. Maybe they didn’t work hard enough at it.
It’s the same deal we’ve heard all along–if you didn’t become ex-gay, it’s because you didn’t have enough “faith,” or whatever.
When these ex gays claim to be “changed” do they hook them up to electrodes, show them gay porn and see what kind of response they get? How about hook them up and show them straight porn?
It amazes me that they like to correlate being gay with being alcoholic. The problem with that is that it is well known that once you are an alcoholic, you are ALWAYS an alcoholic, you are just considered “recovering” and not currently drinking. You are never cured or changed.
I assume it is the same with ex gays. They are not “cured” or “changed”, they just stop having gay sex for religious reasons.
I’ll believe that someone actually changes from gay to straight when they show me the scientific “attraction” test results before and after treatment.
Any percentage that comes out should not be a concern. Whatever the figure, it would not be validated by a neutral third party watching over their ‘project’. I believe they would just mumble a respectable percentage, just to keep their pay masters happy, and anxious parents continuously flooding in, however absurd and illogical it may be.
In his warning to the media about this ex-gay study, Wayne Besen says a valid study should have included objective measurements of participants’ truthfulness, such as a “No Lie MRI.”
I would also suggest some measurements of comparative arousal to visual sex-related stimuli.
Mike A,
There’s 2 basic problems with Besen’s “No Lie MRI” suggestion… effectively making it an impractical request.
1) there’s only one currently operating (in CA)
2) the cost… $30/minute… $3600/sesion… x 100 participants = $360,000.
and, I guess 🙂
3) it didn’t exist 5 years ago, if we’d wanted to gather baseline figures, results across time, or something
4) it’s unproven, even if results are interesting. The co. marketing the product promises a current 90% accuracy, but details about how the inaccuracies arise and the skew are, urgh, sketchy. I’m not sure 90% is even sufficient to make accurate judgements in this area about particular individuals; which is what we are hoping to do afterall.
5) at the end of the day, who cares? We already know that, say, Alan Chambers is a practised sneak and a liar; when it suits him. So we find out he is in fact a liar, or that his sexual attractions are unchanged — perhaps that he’s as gay as a gay man on gay day in Gaytown.
Confirmation is nice, but I doubt this will make any difference to Exodus’ emerging stance on (Throckmorton’s) “values congruence therapy” etc: it is being sold as suggesting a gay man could simply force himself to have sex with a tree stump if he “valued” that enough.
*** note: tree stump used for illustrative purposes only. Do not try it at home, kids.
Sorry ed: bad link. The web page is the cost (and I’ll need to email you. 5 min edit function not showing up. And it’ll be caused by my settings, not your site…)
Chambers also made a comment a while ago saying something like “God trumps our genetics”… I’m sorry, I really don’t remember the link, but I KNOW he said it, because ppl were shocked that such a prominent ex-gay made partial admission to gayness being caused genetically. That being said, no matter WHAT science proves anything our way, God is always going to trump it for those who believe in such a god. Which is why Exodus, JONAH, Evergreen, Courage, and the rest of the faith-based ex-gay orgs need to stop seeking justification through junk science and stick to pounding their weary bibles.
The point that MRI’s, PET and other medical scans are not cheap is an important one. This study, to get enough subjects would be costly, and wasteful when they are needed more for medical conditions.
Even if say, it WERE possible to detect lying, I would assert that law enforcement and criminal detection should take priority for obvious reasons.
This sort of tool or intent to use it, points out literally Exodus’s motive to be the ‘thought police’. Something that was argued as what hate crimes legislation was about.
Thought policing, but to determine if someone has stayed straight or has straight thoughts.
I don’t know about y’all, but considering how small their sample is, this is as stupid a pursuit as it gets.
And very often, the likes of FOTF, TVC, and FRC protest public funding AND sometimes private, on studies to do with gay and lesbian issues.
Seriously, what is the BFD about making gay people all straight?
My God…what if the only flowers in the world were roses, and only white ones?
What about who we are as not all Christians, not all Jews, not all Muslims, or not all Buddhists or Wiccans, but as loving believers in a grand Creator…or NOT?
What about who we are as black, white, brown or somewhere at each extreme or in between?
Just kill me now if there were a world without gay folk, or the transgendered.
I think more than ever, because of so much more that is hard in our world to help or understand, I think learning FROM and WITH gay folks is a far more important pursuit than trying to figure out who changed enough and who didn’t.
Of course, I know for THEM, it’s political purpose.
Because after all, if you’re living as a straight person, who would notice or care?
Which makes my point. If all of us WERE straight, what WOULD these people have left to do….?
I only say I’m a hetero for context. Most of the time, I bet it really doesn’t matter.
It’s only ex gays who want medals and political power for it…oh right, guess there aren’t enough heterosexuals representing them NOW in the political and clerical arena.
What hogs….!
All these numbers and statistics remind me of a statistics class I took way back in my university days. We not only used data to prove smoking caused cancer but were also able to “prove” that cancer causing smoking. By playing with the numbers long enough, and wording things so it gives the illusion of being scientifically sound, we were able to work the numbers to show a variety of obsurdities.
It reminds me of a George Burns and Gracie Allen routine where Gracie is talking about her uncle, Gallop Allen, who took surveys. He took a survey for the telephone company to see how many people had a telephone, and the answer was 100 percent! Everyone he called had a phone!
With all due respect – the No Lie MRI is the best thing to hit the market. It seems some people prefer the “proven” method of storytelling. I guess we have to wait around for the 100% machine before we can abandon this back and forth BS of ex-gays and their tales.
You know, we’ve been sending people to the electric chair for years and putting people in prison with a jury system that is much less accurate than 90%. I guess we should abandon juries as well to satisfy some of you folks.
As far as the costs, perhaps I will cover the cost of Chambers and Randy Thomas. I wonder if they will take me up on this offer?